September 15, 2024
Don't panic, but the odds of a massive asteroid named Apophis smashing into Earth just got a little bit higher. Originally projected to harmlessly fly past us in a close approach, a new study published in The Planetary Science Journal suggests that there's actually a fraction of a chance that the 1,100 foot asteroid might just be on a collision course with our planet after all.
Apophis, named after the Egyptian god of chaos, has been on NASA's watchlist since its discovery in 2004. Initially, scientists estimated that the asteroid had a 1 in 2.7 million chance of impacting Earth in 2029. However, new data and calculations suggest that the odds of an impact might be higher than initially thought.
According to the study, there's a small chance that Apophis' orbit could be affected by a phenomenon known as the Yarkovsky effect, which occurs when the uneven heating of the asteroid's surface causes a tiny amount of thrust. This effect could potentially cause the asteroid's orbit to shift, bringing it closer to Earth and increasing the likelihood of an impact.
While the chances of an impact are still extremely low, scientists say that more research is needed to determine the asteroid's exact trajectory. Fortunately, researchers have some time to gather more data and refine their calculations, as Apophis isn't expected to make its close approach until 2029.
By 2027, scientists say they'll have a much better idea of whether Apophis is on a collision course with Earth. If the asteroid is indeed headed our way, there's still time to develop a plan to deflect or destroy it. NASA and other space agencies around the world have been exploring various methods for asteroid deflection, including the use of nuclear explosions and gravity tractors.
While the threat of an asteroid impact might seem like a distant concern, scientists say that it's essential to take the possibility seriously. After all, asteroid impacts have caused massive destruction in the past, including the extinction of the dinosaurs. By staying vigilant and monitoring the skies for potential threats, we can ensure that we're prepared for whatever might come our way.
So, while the odds of an Apophis impact are still low, it's reassuring to know that scientists are on the case, working to refine their calculations and develop a plan to keep us safe. In the meantime, we can all breathe a sigh of relief and enjoy the night sky, knowing that we're a little bit better prepared for whatever the universe might throw our way.
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