September 30, 2024
The Malaysian ringgit has been on a roll lately, with some economists predicting that it could strengthen to RM3.80 against the US dollar by the end of 2024. This would be a significant milestone for the currency, which has faced significant volatility in recent years. So what's behind this sudden surge?
According to some analysts, the ringgit's recent strength can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a robust economic performance and a favorable external environment. Malaysia's economy has been performing well, with strong growth in key sectors such as manufacturing and services. At the same time, the country has been benefiting from a favorable external environment, with a strong US dollar and a pickup in global trade.
But the ringgit's recent strength is not just about the macroeconomic fundamentals. The currency has also been boosted by its relatively high interest rates and attractive yield compared to other emerging market currencies. This has made it an attractive destination for foreign investors, who are looking for higher returns in a low-yield environment.
And the ringgit is not just outperforming its regional peers; it's also beating some of the world's most popular safe-haven assets. Since July, the ringgit has outperformed the Japanese yen and gold, which are often seen as safe-haven assets during times of market uncertainty. This is a remarkable achievement for the Malaysian currency, and it underlines its growing appeal to investors.
So what does this mean for Malaysia's economy? A stronger ringgit can have both positive and negative effects. On the one hand, it can make exports more expensive and hurt the competitiveness of Malaysian businesses. On the other hand, it can make imports cheaper and boost the purchasing power of Malaysian consumers.
According to Loo Cheng Chuan, the technopreneur behind the 1M65 SG group, the ringgit's recent surge is not just about the currency itself, but about the broader implications for Malaysia's economy. In his view, a stronger ringgit is a sign of confidence in Malaysia's economic prospects, and it could help to attract more foreign investment into the country.
But not everyone is convinced that the ringgit's surge is sustainable. Some analysts have pointed out that the currency is still vulnerable to external shocks, such as a flare-up in the US-China trade war or a sudden decline in global economic growth. And there are also concerns that the ringgit's recent strength could lead to overheating in the Malaysian economy, particularly if it leads to a surge in asset prices.
Despite these risks, the Malaysian ringgit remains an attractive destination for investors. With its relatively high interest rates, attractive yield, and robust economic fundamentals, the ringgit is well-positioned to continue its upward trend. And if Loo Cheng Chuan's prediction comes true, it could hit 3.00 or even 2.90 against the Singapore dollar in the near future.
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