China's Missile Menace: What Iran's Shocking Attacks Reveal About The Dark Future of Warfare

Iran's missile barrage this month against Israel, after a similar large-scale attack in April, has sent shockwaves across the globe. But beneath the surface of these attacks lies a crucial lesson that could redefine the dynamics of modern warfare, particularly in the context of a potential Indo-Pacific conflict with China. Analysts argue that the nearly 400 missiles of different types fired by Iran at Israel this year offer a rare glimpse into the effectiveness and shortcomings of U.S. and allied missile defenses.

Experts warn that the sheer scale of Iran's attacks could be dwarfed by the advanced arsenal at China's disposal. For Washington, the main takeaway from Iran's October 1 attacks – the largest sample yet of ballistic missiles fired against modern defenses – is the stark realization that Beijing's missiles would be far more challenging to intercept than Iran's.

Collin Koh, a renowned expert from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, suggests that the key to deterring a mass missile attack by China lies in the ability to strike back. This doctrine of deterrence by response implies that merely relying on missile defense systems may not be enough to prevent an attack. Rather, it is the capacity to retaliate with devastating force that could stay the hand of an aggressor.

However, there are significant differences between the Iran-Israel conflict and a hypothetical Indo-Pacific conflict involving China. Notably, the geography, the military capabilities, and the strategic interests at play are vastly different. Despite these limitations, the Iranian experience provides valuable insights into the tactics that an adversary might employ in a missile attack.

Iran's missile barrage against Israel demonstrated the effectiveness of using sheer numbers of missiles to overwhelm defenses. The Iranian military launched a large-scale attack with over 50 missiles fired in a coordinated salvo. This tactic aimed to saturate Israel's missile defense systems, creating a daunting challenge for radar and interceptor systems to track and destroy incoming missiles.

Analysts suggest that China, with its advanced arsenal, might exploit similar tactics. China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) possesses a range of advanced missiles designed to outsmart U.S. and allied defenses. These missiles include hypersonic systems that can traverse vast distances and hit targets with unprecedented speed and accuracy.

The implications of these advancements for the U.S. and its allies are profound. In a potential Indo-Pacific conflict, China's advanced missiles would pose an existential threat to U.S. military assets, including aircraft carriers and airbases. As such, Washington and its allies must reassess their strategies for defending against Chinese missile attacks.

Experts recommend that the U.S. and its allies invest in more sophisticated missile defense systems that can detect and destroy hypersonic missiles. These systems would need to incorporate cutting-edge radar technology, advanced interceptors, and network-centric command and control architectures.

At the same time, Washington must also consider developing more robust retaliatory capabilities. This could involve augmenting U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific with more destructive firepower, such as stealthy bombers and hypersonic systems of its own. By enhancing its capacity to strike back at an aggressor, the U.S. can bolster deterrence and improve the stability of regional power dynamics.

As the international community continues to grapple with the complexities of modern warfare, the lessons from Iran's missile attacks against Israel offer a sobering reminder of the evolving nature of threats in the 21st century. Washington, in particular, must pay heed to these warnings and reassess its strategies for defending against advanced missile arsenals like China's. By examining the successes and shortcomings of U.S. and allied defenses in the Middle East, the U.S. can prepare itself for a more perilous future where hypersonic missiles and other emerging threats pose a constant danger.