The copper market, once a darling of commodity investors, has seen its fortunes take a dramatic turn in recent weeks. After notching an all-time high in May, copper prices have pulled back, closing below $9,000/t and leaving investors wondering if the rally is officially over.
Just like the oil markets, sentiment in copper markets has weakened significantly, driven by a combination of factors that have contributed to the decline. Weak U.S. manufacturing and labor market data have weighed on investor confidence, while soft Chinese data has also cast a shadow over the market.
Meanwhile, a sizable build in London Metal Exchange (LME) inventories has further exacerbated the bearish sentiment. The latest data shows that LME copper inventories have been on the rise, which is often seen as a bearish indicator for the market.
Last week, Goldman Sachs delivered the final blow to copper bulls, downgrading its copper price forecast for 2025. The investment bank now sees copper prices averaging $10,100 per metric ton in 2025, a sharp reduction from its previous forecast of $15,000. The downgrade was largely driven by weakening demand from China, which has been a key driver of the copper rally in recent years.
The Goldman Sachs downgrade is a significant blow to the copper market, as the investment bank is widely followed by investors and its forecasts carry significant weight. The downgrade is likely to further exacerbate the bearish sentiment in the market and could lead to further price declines in the coming weeks.
So, is the copper rally officially over? It's difficult to say for certain, but the signs are certainly bearish. With weak data from the U.S. and China, combined with rising LME inventories, it's likely that copper prices will continue to struggle in the coming weeks. However, as we all know, markets can be unpredictable, and there's always the possibility of a surprise rally.
For investors, the best approach is likely to be cautious. While copper prices may be attractive at current levels, the bearish sentiment and weak data make it a challenging market to navigate. It's essential to keep a close eye on market developments and be prepared for any unexpected twists and turns.
In the short term, it's likely that copper prices will continue to be driven by macroeconomic data and LME inventory levels. Investors should keep a close eye on these indicators and be prepared to adjust their strategies accordingly. As the old adage goes, 'the trend is your friend,' and right now, the trend is bearish.