September 13, 2024
New York (CNN) — We all breathed a collective sigh of relief when the yield curve inversion between the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury yields finally normalized after nearly two years of flashing red. This unusual occurrence historically signals an impending recession, and economists have been keeping a close eye on it since.
However, news just broke that another major recession indicator has triggered, sending shockwaves through the financial community. It seems like investors and economists are once again on high alert, with worries about the overall health of the global economy mounting.
For those unfamiliar with the yield curve, it's essentially a graph showing the relationship between the yields of different US Treasury notes of varying maturities. When the yield of the 2-year note exceeds that of the 10-year note, it's considered an inverted yield curve — a phenomenon that typically precedes a recession.
Following months of intense market volatility and increasingly inverted yield curves, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury note finally traded below the 10-year yield, indicating a return to more normal market dynamics. However, experts remain skeptical that this drastic change means we're completely out of the woods.
As one leading economist put it, 'although the normalization of the yield curve is a welcome change, it's crucial we continue monitoring the situation closely.' Indeed, market fluctuations and subtle changes in the US economy are influencing opinions on the recession.
With another recession indicator now triggering, investors are taking precautions by preparing for possible economic downturns in the future. Different scenarios and possibilities will influence what likely plays out in the coming months.
What recession indicator triggered this time around, and how are the country's investors and economists planning to respond? The world is keeping a close eye on upcoming financial events and economic movements to get the full picture of the current state of financial affairs.
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