'RUSSIA IS WAITING': How America's Vote Could Decide the Fate of Ukraine

Russia continues a slow, grinding advance across the entire front line in Ukraine as a close U.S. election looms whose result will have major repercussions for Kyiv’s ability to fight back.

Despite Russia's steady gains in eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military has shown resilience, a testament to the unwavering support from the United States and other Western countries. The war-torn nation has been under constant bombardment by Russian forces since the February 2022 invasion.

A presidential election in the United States could tip the balance of power in Ukraine. In recent months, U.S. policy in Ukraine has become increasingly politicized. If Republicans gain control of the House or Senate, the aid package being considered by the Biden administration may not get through Congress.

Since the beginning of the conflict, the United States has committed to provide billions of dollars' worth of military aid to Ukraine. This support has bolstered Ukraine’s military, which now boasts HIMARS multiple rocket launchers, more accurate and possessing a greater strike radius than anything in Russia's military arsenal. Aid also includes Harpoon missiles for coastal defense.

Ukraine’s allies are worried about what the election might mean for Kyiv, starting with whether the administration will be able to arm Ukraine with the latest M1 Abrams tank technology and HIMARS systems with advanced guidance systems, giving it greater flexibility on the ground.

In recent months, Moscow's forces have reportedly taken ground in a low-intensity campaign marked by trench warfare and artillery duels.

More importantly, Biden’s administration is waiting for the outcome of the election to decide whether to increase non-nuclear effort beyond what we call land warfare.

Election uncertainty in the United States would badly affect current supplies and future commitments to Kyiv as either supplies or types could change significantly in coming weeks according to our intelligence gatherers.

Many believe Russia sees a potential Republican victory as a signal that Ukraine’s days as a client of the United States may be limited, and therefore delaying military gains may yet provide a clear upper hand in future engagements.

Russia might also gamble that election gridlock will weaken the current round of penalties so far directed against it and increase the difficulties of agreeing with like-minded supporters to include even more support in pushing certain specific international actions to be taken against rogue nation states.

Recent U.S. government moves make Ukrainian military officials fear the prospect of new efforts to push this far-off war mostly into domestic hands.

Analysts of high stature have speculated over the level of future U.S. commitment with some warning that while Russia will test whoever takes the White House it will fall to either Biden or the new occupant to consider military steps against adversaries beyond the security guarantee levels seen to date on the premise that diplomacy without power often fails for one reason alone, because that same power isn’t maintained as it risks renege to signal loss of resolve which will swiftly attract actions inimical to what the U.S stands for.